Wednesday, October 31, 2018

為什麼美國的QE可以提振經濟,歐洲和日本卻沒有效果?


BLOG 介有好多勁人勁文, 其中一篇係三人行兄的 <貨幣洪流 (四):央行收水?係咪諗多左呢?(同場加映:你跑得贏央行的印鈔機嗎?)>, 二當家閒時就拎黎回味一番。

QE後10年, 宜家望番倒後鏡, 梗係話應該早D買入資產, 三人行兄亦提到, QE後 //美國人鍾意買股,港人同中國人鍾意買樓,偏好上的差異而已。//, 所以造成資產價格創下新高, 但二當家心內一個問號突然亮起, 咁日本呢?

鐘意去日本既香港人不難發現, 其實近呢幾年日本真係好似無通賬咁, 幾年前去食個麵可能要900YEN, 幾年後去仲係賣緊900YEN, 加上匯率仲非常吸引, 日本能成為香港人既旅遊天堂亦不無道理。

如果我無記錯, 安倍晉三的安倍經濟學仲早過美國QE, 當中的三枝箭分別為
WIKI 安倍經濟學
第一支箭:積極的金融政策
第二支箭:靈活的財政政策
第三支箭:促進並發展民間投資

安倍更以2%通賬為目標, 不過暫時日本都好似未達到目標, 感覺上好似都係半死不活, 而日本的平均加薪幅到都係2%左右, 在網上左看看右看看, 終於在<知乎>上找到幾篇十分有水準的答案。

簡單咁講, 日本, 歐洲 同美國發生既不同問題, 日本係需求不足/人口下降, 歐洲係地區債務問題, 勞力流動性問題, 而美國係信貸信心問題, 所以在2008金融危機後, 美國用 QE 黎維持投資者對金融制度既信心, 而美元根本性既強勢, 加上企業既創新能力令到美國可以跨過今次既難關, 亦令到美國可以率先「收水」(反正我都唔駛睇人地面口)。

而係日本, 雖然企業盈利率有改善, 但普遍打工仔都係無受惠, 人工無乜點加, 加上對通縮既恐懼, 人口下滑, 令到消費意欲減低。網上看到原來日本央行持有4成國債及市場上74%的 ETF, 這是一個什麼慨念? 資本市場國有化? 而日本印出黎既錢又去左邊呢?

到最後要問既一個問題, 美國帶頭收水 (先不論收幾多), 其它國家又會否跟風呢?


如對以上內容有興趣, 推介你看下面最後一條 LINK。


安倍經濟學5年回首 成果如何?
Japan's workers win biggest pay raises in 20 years - 2018-04-16
2分之1自旋的原创专栏 - QE实效
高负债的日本为何未爆发债务危机
日本央行購ETF撐日股 撐得幾耐?
全球央行祭出宽松后钱都去哪儿了?
知乎 : 為什麼美國的QE可以提振經濟,歐洲和日本卻沒有效果?



Thursday, October 25, 2018

紀錄一下: 恆指一野穿埋25000 - 其實股災又有乜好怕WO?



圖片來自 蘋果日報



今日個市一野就穿埋25000, 其實二當家好想扮阿「嬸」大師咁話自己威威
然後就扮先知, 話自己之前已經出左個 POST 話 WINTER IS COMING。

不過實情係, 二當家都係靠估, 個市唔係升就係跌, 牛皮即係仲有機會, 宜家仲可以學埋汪老闆咁話係假升假跌。我個諗法同好多大神一樣, 跌就收息, 升就減持, 個注碼最緊要控制得宜,  睡得安心最緊要。

飛鳥兄建議我「平常心去面對股災你會睇得仲多嘢」, TRUE。每個人既承受風險程度唔同, 飛鳥兄仲未出手, 但其他BLOGGER 有D已經慢慢入緊貨, 最緊要對自己負責, 錯就錯, 唔好俾自己搵籍口。

二當家細膽又貪心, 又怕 FOMO, 但又怕死, 成日都做好多假設 例如, 下個月跌一千, 三個月後跌三千點會點, 成個 PORTFOLIO 輸四成又會點?
下個月升一千, 三個月後升三千點又會點? 會否再次陷入人升自己無份既慘況, 正所謂「問君能有幾多愁?沒買騰訊沒買樓企鵝」。

到最後才決定機械性操作每跌一千點加一注, 二當家暫時係50% 港股, 25% 美股小小倉, 25%預備金。即使港股 ALL IN, 有需要時二當家仲可以係預備金調撥出黎。預留左個小首期, 樓跌就入市。其實股災又有乜好怕WO? 我的意思是盡量做好所有 SCENAIRO 的準備, 最緊要計得掂條數, 無人可以嬴晒, 唔輸已經好叻!


二當家當務之急係加強樓市既資訊, 玩法, 慨念。見到斗滿兄的分享, 二當家都請教左 R 兄的樓宇按揭問題, 非常感謝各位無私的分享。




Monday, October 22, 2018

What is Money?


重新思考 What is Money? 為什麼會有 interest? 為什麼會有通貨膨脹?
隨即想到上年康業既一個廣告, 廣告其實拍得好好, 令人重新思考什麼係錢。

錢, 貨幣, 購買力 - 這三樣東西看似一樣, 但實際上又好似唔同。 在YOUTUBE 上找到一篇 "MONEY AS DEBT" 的片, 介紹我們的錢是從那裡來的, 值得推介一下。


"錢係一張紙, 錢係一種價值
錢好吸引, 錢好唔吸引
有錢有運, 無錢無運
錢好唔公平, 錢好公平, 
有錢振奮, 無錢, 振作囉
錢可以變磚頭, 磚頭可以變返錢。 
錢係萬能, 定係一個可能?
What is Money?

錢用得其所, 就有無限既可能!

Money is Change
Money is Power
Money is Hope
Money is Time"














Thursday, October 18, 2018

2238 廣汽 2018 上半年 超簡短評


股壇老兵鍾記 長勝之道: 廣汽估值更新(十六)



超簡短評, 因為大部份鍾記都寫左, 我只講出他沒有提出的看法

1. 存貨大增8成, 其解釋是 "存貨較上期期末數增加83.18%,主要是本報告期隨產銷量增加,原材料及產成品相應增加所致", 但沒有很仔細解釋。

2. 年增銷量10%應該達不了, 但又唔係話好差, 6%應該可以達標

3. 假設下半年 EARNING 一樣
RMB0.68 * 2 * 1.1 = HKD1.5, 今日價格係 7蚊
P/E = 4.6

4. 中期息人民幣10分, 又假設下半年一樣派息比率維持一樣 (30%)
EARNING HKD 1.5 * 30% / 7蚊
DIV% =  6.43%

5. 吉利都唔貴, 但係9 月份個同月增長放緩

6. 同場加映大犘對吉利既目標價, 再講一次, 信自己, 好過信人
2017-10-03 《異動股》吉利(175)獲大摩升目標價至30元,升幅擴至一成
2018-08-22【業績】吉利半年多賺54% 大摩指有驚喜目標價20元
2018-09-18 吉利挫逾5% 遭大摩狠劈目標價五成 - 目標價從20元大劈五成至10元












Wednesday, October 10, 2018

紀錄一下: 美市跌八百幾點, 心態真的好重要



今日美股跌800點, 係有史以黎第三大跌幅, 港女又借勢跟跌。 今次跌市身邊既家人反應同下:

大當家本身無買開股票, 得好少 2888 (係我衰, 百幾蚊果陣叫佢入的), 0005, 同 0016 (最近買)。 一打開網頁果陣見到滿江紅, 問我好唔好賣走佢。

另外我有家人見到跌市, 無論有貨無貨都唔敢入,因為跌得太急, 今日收市分分鐘跌過千點。二當家終於感覺到有少少恐懼既感覺。

兩年前既二當家會同佢地一樣, 會好驚, 可能加入一齊拋售, 今日既二當家會叫我家人每跌一千點咪入一注, 預5注左右, 地產, 銀行, REIT 乜都好, 當然要睇公司既質素, 另外留一個首期既現金作 BUFFER。

二當家覺得自己心態好左(可能只係阿 Q左), 因為平時有做開功課, 至少知道自己買果間公司既財務狀況係點, 有沒倒閉危險, 派息狀況如何。二當家個股票組合都係同大家一樣, -1X%, 其實都見緊紅 , 但明白到係 face value 黎姐。

前文都有講, 所有野都係講「預期」, 個個買股票都係預升唔預跌, 世上邊有咁著數既事。股票如是, 樓如是。全兄既沸騰指數去到「貪婪」啦, 你呢?

全家福祿壽
https://fukluksau.blogspot.com




Tuesday, October 9, 2018

最厲害的大話


眾新聞: 彭斯發表美國對中國政策講話(全文)

Remarks by Vice President Pence on the Administration’s Policy Toward China


彭斯講話的全文, 別人翻譯的我不 POST 了, 請睇上面的 LINK, 下面是白宮公佈的
最厲害的大話, 就係有真有假, 講到尾, 要出師有名。
中國口裡說不做世界一哥, 口蜜腹劍。大當家問我對香港禁止香港外國記者會(FCC)副主席既工作簽證既睇法, 我話, 仲可以有咩睇法, 沙中線會展站既搬龍門事件已經完全反映左發生緊咩事, 理應香港恊助中國進步, 可惜事與愿違。

那邊廂新聞播出一單新聞, 央視整左個節目「平語近人」去解讀習大大用過既引經據典, OMG..........

習近平宣傳熱持續 中國推「平語近人」新節目

The Hudson Institute
Washington, D.C.
11:07 A.M. EDT
THE VICE PRESIDENT: Thank you, Ken, for that kind introduction. To the Members of the Board of Trustees, to Dr. Michael Pillsbury, to our distinguished guests, and to all of you who, true to your mission in this place, “think about the future in unconventional ways” –- it is an honor to be back at the Hudson Institute.
For more than a half a century, this Institute has dedicated itself to “advancing global security, prosperity, and freedom.” And while Hudson’s hometowns have changed over the years, one thing has been constant: You have always advanced that vital truth, that American leadership lights the way.
And today, speaking of leadership, allow me to begin by bringing greetings from a great champion of American leadership at home and abroad –- I bring greetings from the 45th President of the United States of America, President Donald Trump. (Applause.)
From early in this administration, President Trump has made our relationship with China and President Xi a priority. On April 6th of last year, President Trump welcomed President Xi to Mar-a-Lago. On November 8th of last year, President Trump traveled to Beijing, where China’s leader welcomed him warmly.
Over the course of the past two years, our President has forged a strong personal relationship with the President of the People’s Republic of China, and they’ve worked closely on issues of common interest, most importantly the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
But I come before you today because the American people deserve to know that, as we speak, Beijing is employing a whole-of-government approach, using political, economic, and military tools, as well as propaganda, to advance its influence and benefit its interests in the United States.
China is also applying this power in more proactive ways than ever before, to exert influence and interfere in the domestic policy and politics of this country.
Under President Trump’s leadership, the United States has taken decisive action to respond to China with American action, applying the principles and the policies long advocated in these halls.
In our National Security Strategy that the President Trump released last December, he described a new era of “great power competition.” Foreign nations have begun to, as we wrote, “reassert their influence regionally and globally,” and they are “contesting [America’s] geopolitical advantages and trying [in essence] to change the international order in their favor.”
In this strategy, President Trump made clear that the United States of America has adopted a new approach to China. We seek a relationship grounded in fairness, reciprocity, and respect for sovereignty, and we have taken strong and swift action to achieve that goal.
As the President said last year on his visit to China, in his words, “we have an opportunity to strengthen the relationship between our two countries and improve the lives of our citizens.” Our vision of the future is built on the best parts of our past, when America and China reached out to one another in a spirit of openness and friendship.
When our young nation went searching in the wake of the Revolutionary War for new markets for our exports, the Chinese people welcomed American traders laden with ginseng and fur.
When China suffered through indignities and exploitations during her so-called “Century of Humiliation,” America refused to join in, and advocated the “Open Door” policy, so that we could have freer trade with China, and preserve their sovereignty.
When American missionaries brought the good news to China’s shores, they were moved by the rich culture of an ancient and vibrant people. And not only did they spread their faith, but those same missionaries founded some of China’s first and finest universities.
When the Second World War arose, we stood together as allies in the fight against imperialism. And in that war’s aftermath, America ensured that China became a charter member of the United Nations, and a great shaper of the post-war world.
But soon after it took power in 1949, the Chinese Communist Party began to pursue authoritarian expansionism. It is remarkable to think that only five years after our nations had fought together, we fought each other in the mountains and valleys of the Korean Peninsula. My own father saw combat on that frontier of freedom.
But not even the brutal Korean War could diminish our mutual desire to restore the ties that for so long had bound our peoples together. China’s estrangement from the United States ended in 1972, and, soon after, we re-established diplomatic relations and began to open our economies to one another, and American universities began training a new generation of Chinese engineers, business leaders, scholars, and officials.
After the fall of the Soviet Union, we assumed that a free China was inevitable. Heady with optimism at the turn of the 21st Century, America agreed to give Beijing open access to our economy, and we brought China into the World Trade Organization.
Previous administrations made this choice in the hope that freedom in China would expand in all of its forms -– not just economically, but politically, with a newfound respect for classical liberal principles, private property, personal liberty, religious freedom — the entire family of human rights. But that hope has gone unfulfilled.
The dream of freedom remains distant for the Chinese people. And while Beijing still pays lip service to “reform and opening,” Deng Xiaoping’s famous policy now rings hollow.
Over the past 17 years, China’s GDP has grown nine-fold; it’s become the second-largest economy in the world. Much of this success was driven by American investment in China. And the Chinese Communist Party has also used an arsenal of policies inconsistent with free and fair trade, including tariffs, quotas, currency manipulation, forced technology transfer, intellectual property theft, and industrial subsidies that are handed out like candy to foreign investment. These policies have built Beijing’s manufacturing base, at the expense of its competitors -– especially the United States of America.
China’s actions have contributed to a trade deficit with the United States that last year ran to $375 billion –- nearly half of our global trade deficit. As President Trump said just this week, in his words, “We rebuilt China” over the last 25 years.
Now, through the “Made in China 2025” plan, the Communist Party has set its sights on controlling 90 percent of the world’s most advanced industries, including robotics, biotechnology, and artificial intelligence. To win the commanding heights of the 21st century economy, Beijing has directed its bureaucrats and businesses to obtain American intellectual property –- the foundation of our economic leadership -– by any means necessary.
Beijing now requires many American businesses to hand over their trade secrets as the cost of doing business in China. It also coordinates and sponsors the acquisition of American firms to gain ownership of their creations. Worst of all, Chinese security agencies have masterminded the wholesale theft of American technology –- including cutting-edge military blueprints. And using that stolen technology, the Chinese Communist Party is turning plowshares into swords on a massive scale.
China now spends as much on its military as the rest of Asia combined, and Beijing has prioritized capabilities to erode America’s military advantages on land, at sea, in the air, and in space. China wants nothing less than to push the United States of America from the Western Pacific and attempt to prevent us from coming to the aid of our allies. But they will fail.
Beijing is also using its power like never before. Chinese ships routinely patrol around the Senkaku Islands, which are administered by Japan. And while China’s leader stood in the Rose Garden at the White House in 2015 and said that his country had, and I quote, “no intention to militarize” the South China Sea, today, Beijing has deployed advanced anti-ship and anti-air missiles atop an archipelago of military bases constructed on artificial islands.
China’s aggression was on display this week, when a Chinese naval vessel came within 45 yards of the USS Decatur as it conducted freedom-of-navigation operations in the South China Sea, forcing our ship to quickly maneuver to avoid collision. Despite such reckless harassment, the United States Navy will continue to fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows and our national interests demand. We will not be intimidated and we will not stand down. (Applause.)
America had hoped that economic liberalization would bring China into a greater partnership with us and with the world. Instead, China has chosen economic aggression, which has in turn emboldened its growing military.
Nor, as we had hoped, has Beijing moved toward greater freedom for its own people. For a time, Beijing inched toward greater liberty and respect for human rights. But in recent years, China has taken a sharp U-turn toward control and oppression of its own people.
Today, China has built an unparalleled surveillance state, and it’s growing more expansive and intrusive – often with the help of U.S. technology. What they call the “Great Firewall of China” likewise grows higher, drastically restricting the free flow of information to the Chinese people.
And by 2020, China’s rulers aim to implement an Orwellian system premised on controlling virtually every facet of human life — the so-called “Social Credit Score.” In the words of that program’s official blueprint, it will “allow the trustworthy to roam everywhere under heaven, while making it hard for the discredited to take a single step.”
And when it comes to religious freedom, a new wave of persecution is crashing down on Chinese Christians, Buddhists, and Muslims.
Last month, Beijing shut down one of China’s largest underground churches. Across the country, authorities are tearing down crosses, burning bibles, and imprisoning believers. And Beijing has now reached a deal with the Vatican that gives the avowedly atheist Communist Party a direct role in appointing Catholic bishops. For China’s Christians, these are desperate times.
Beijing is also cracking down on Buddhism. Over the past decade, more than 150 Tibetan Buddhist monks have lit themselves on fire to protest China’s repression of their beliefs and their culture. And in Xinjiang, the Communist Party has imprisoned as many as one million Muslim Uyghurs in government camps where they endure around-the-clock brainwashing. Survivors of the camps have described their experiences as a deliberate attempt by Beijing to strangle Uyghur culture and stamp out the Muslim faith.
As history attests though, a country that oppresses its own people rarely stops there. And Beijing also aims to extend its reach across the wider world. As Hudson’s own Dr. Michael Pillsbury has written, “China has opposed the actions and goals of the U.S. government. Indeed, China is building its own relationships with America’s allies and enemies that contradict any peaceful or productive intentions of Beijing.”
In fact, China uses so-called “debt diplomacy” to expand its influence. Today, that country is offering hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure loans to governments from Asia to Africa to Europe and even Latin America. Yet the terms of those loans are opaque at best, and the benefits invariably flow overwhelmingly to Beijing.
Just ask Sri Lanka, which took on massive debt to let Chinese state companies build a port of questionable commercial value. Two years ago, that country could no longer afford its payments, so Beijing pressured Sri Lanka to deliver the new port directly into Chinese hands. It may soon become a forward military base for China’s growing blue-water navy.
Within our own hemisphere, Beijing has extended a lifeline to the corrupt and incompetent Maduro regime in Venezuela that’s been oppressing its own people. They pledged $5 billion in questionable loans to be repaid with oil. China is also that country’s single largest creditor, saddling the Venezuelan people with more than $50 billion in debt, even as their democracy vanishes. Beijing is also impacting some nations’ politics by providing direct support to parties and candidates who promise to accommodate China’s strategic objectives.
And since last year alone, the Chinese Communist Party has convinced three Latin American nations to sever ties with Taipei and recognize Beijing. These actions threaten the stability of the Taiwan Strait, and the United States of America condemns these actions. And while our administration will continue to respect our One China Policy, as reflected in the three joint communiqués and the Taiwan Relations Act, America will always believe that Taiwan’s embrace of democracy shows a better path for all the Chinese people. (Applause.)
Now these are only a few of the ways that China has sought to advance its strategic interests across the world, with growing intensity and sophistication. Yet previous administrations all but ignored China’s actions. And in many cases, they abetted them. But those days are over.
Under President Trump’s leadership, the United States of America has been defending our interests with renewed American strength.
We’ve been making the strongest military in the history of the world stronger still. Earlier this year, President Trump signed into law the largest increase in our national defense since the days of Ronald Reagan -– $716 billion to extend the strength of the American military to every domain.
We’re modernizing our nuclear arsenal. We’re fielding and developing new cutting-edge fighters and bombers. We’re building a new generation of aircraft carriers and warships. We’re investing as never before in our armed forces. And this includes initiating the process to establish the United States Space Force to ensure our continued dominance in space, and we’ve taken action to authorize increased capability in the cyber world to build deterrence against our adversaries.
At President Trump’s direction, we’re also implementing tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese goods, with the highest tariffs specifically targeting the advanced industries that Beijing is trying to capture and control. And as the President has also made clear, we will levy even more tariffs, with the possibility of substantially more than doubling that number, unless a fair and reciprocal deal is made. (Applause.)
These actions — exercises in American strength — have had a major impact. China’s largest stock exchange fell by 25 percent in the first nine months of this year, in large part because our administration has been standing strong against Beijing’s trade practices.
As President Trump has made clear, we don’t want China’s markets to suffer. In fact, we want them to thrive. But the United States wants Beijing to pursue trade policies that are free, fair, and reciprocal. And we will continue to stand and demand that they do. (Applause.)
Sadly, China’s rulers, thus far, have refused to take that path. The American people deserve to know: In response to the strong stand that President Trump has taken, Beijing is pursuing a comprehensive and coordinated campaign to undermine support for the President, our agenda, and our nation’s most cherished ideals.
I want to tell you today what we know about China’s actions here at home — some of which we’ve gleaned from intelligence assessments, some of which are publicly available. But all of which are fact.
As I said before, as we speak, Beijing is employing a whole-of-government approach to advance its influence and benefit its interests. It’s employing this power in more proactive and coercive ways to interfere in the domestic policies of this country and to interfere in the politics of the United States.
The Chinese Communist Party is rewarding or coercing American businesses, movie studios, universities, think tanks, scholars, journalists, and local, state, and federal officials.
And worst of all, China has initiated an unprecedented effort to influence American public opinion, the 2018 elections, and the environment leading into the 2020 presidential elections. To put it bluntly, President Trump’s leadership is working; and China wants a different American President.
There can be no doubt: China is meddling in America’s democracy. As President Trump said just last week, we have, in his words, “found that China has been attempting to interfere in our upcoming [midterm] election[s].”
Our intelligence community says that “China is targeting U.S. state and local governments and officials to exploit any divisions between federal and local levels on policy. It’s using wedge issues, like trade tariffs, to advance Beijing’s political influence.”
In June, Beijing itself circulated a sensitive document, entitled “Propaganda and Censorship Notice.” It laid out its strategy. It stated that China must, in their words, “strike accurately and carefully, splitting apart different domestic groups” in the United States of America.
To that end, Beijing has mobilized covert actors, front groups, and propaganda outlets to shift Americans’ perception of Chinese policy. As a senior career member of our intelligence community told me just this week, what the Russians are doing pales in comparison to what China is doing across this country. And the American people deserve to know it.
Senior Chinese officials have also tried to influence business leaders to encourage them to condemn our trade actions, leveraging their desire to maintain their operations in China. In one recent example, China threatened to deny a business license for a major U.S. corporation if they refused to speak out against our administration’s policies.
And when it comes to influencing the midterms, you need only look at Beijing’s tariffs in response to ours. The tariffs imposed by China to date specifically targeted industries and states that would play an important role in the 2018 election. By one estimate, more than 80 percent of U.S. counties targeted by China voted for President Trump and I in 2016; now China wants to turn these voters against our administration.
And China is also directly appealing to the American voters. Last week, the Chinese government paid to have a multipage supplement inserted into the Des Moines Register –- the paper of record of the home state of our Ambassador to China, and a pivotal state in 2018 and 2020. The supplement, designed to look like the news articles, cast our trade policies as reckless and harmful to Iowans.
Fortunately, Americans aren’t buying it. For example, American farmers are standing with this President and are seeing real results from the strong stands that he’s taken, including this week’s U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, where we’ve substantially opened North American markets to U.S. products. The USMCA is a great win for American farmers and American manufacturers. (Applause.)
But China’s actions aren’t focused solely on influencing our policies and politics. Beijing is also taking steps to exploit its economic leverage, and the allure of their large marketplace, to advance its influence over American businesses.
Beijing now requires American joint ventures that operate in China to establish what they call “party organizations” within their company, giving the Communist Party a voice –- and perhaps a veto -– in hiring and investment decisions.
Chinese authorities have also threatened U.S. companies that depict Taiwan as a distinct geographic entity, or that stray from Chinese policy on Tibet. Beijing compelled Delta Airlines to publicly apologize for not calling Taiwan a “province of China” on its website. And it pressured Marriott to fire a U.S. employee who merely liked a tweet about Tibet.
And Beijing routinely demands that Hollywood portray China in a strictly positive light. It punishes studios and producers that don’t. Beijing’s censors are quick to edit or outlaw movies that criticize China, even in minor ways. For the movie, “World War Z,” they had to cut the script’s mention of a virus because it originated in China. The movie, “Red Dawn” was digitally edited to make the villains North Korean, not Chinese.
But beyond business and entertainment, the Chinese Communist Party is also spending billions of dollars on propaganda outlets in the United States and, frankly, around the world.
China Radio International now broadcasts Beijing-friendly programs on over 30 U.S. outlets, many in major American cities. The China Global Television Network reaches more than 75 million Americans, and it gets its marching orders directly from its Communist Party masters. As China’s top leader put it during a visit to the network’s headquarters, and I quote, “The media run by the Party and the government are propaganda fronts and must have the Party as their surname.”
It’s for those reasons and that reality that, last month, the Department of Justice ordered that network to register as a foreign agent.
The Communist Party has also threatened and detained the Chinese family members of American journalists who pry too deep. And it’s blocked the websites of U.S. media organizations and made it harder for our journalists to get visas. This happened after the New York Times published investigative reports about the wealth of some of China’s leaders.
But the media isn’t the only place where the Chinese Communist Party seeks to foster a culture of censorship. The same is true across academia.
I mean, look no further than the Chinese Students and Scholars Association, of which there are more than 150 branches across America’s campuses. These groups help organize social events for some of the more than 430,000 Chinese nationals studying in the United States. They also alert Chinese consulates and embassies when Chinese students, and American schools, stray from the Communist Party line.
At the University of Maryland, a Chinese student recently spoke at her graduation of what she called, and I quote, the “fresh air of free speech” in America. The Communist Party’s official newspaper swiftly chastised her. She became the victim of a firestorm of criticism on China’s tightly-controlled social media, and her family back home was harassed. As for the university itself, its exchange program with China — one of the nation’s most extensive — suddenly turned from a flood to a trickle.
China exerts academic pressure in other ways, as well. Beijing provides generous funding to universities, think tanks, and scholars, with the understanding that they will avoid ideas that the Communist Party finds dangerous or offensive. China experts in particular know that their visas will be delayed or denied if their research contradicts Beijing’s talking points.
And even scholars and groups who avoid Chinese funding are targeted by that country, as the Hudson Institute found out firsthand. After you offered to host a speaker Beijing didn’t like, your website suffered a major cyberattack, originating from Shanghai. The Hudson Institute knows better than most that the Chinese Communist Party is trying to undermine academic freedom and the freedom of speech in America today.
These and other actions, taken as a whole, constitute an intensifying effort to shift American public opinion and policy away from the “America First” leadership of President Donald Trump.
But our message to China’s rulers is this: This President will not back down. (Applause.) The American people will not be swayed. And we will continue to stand strong for our security and our economy, even as we hope for improved relations with Beijing.
Our administration is going to continue to act decisively to protect America’s interests, American jobs, and American security.
As we rebuild our military, we will continue to assert American interests across the Indo-Pacific.
As we respond to China’s trade practices, we will continue to demand an economic relationship with China that is free, fair, and reciprocal. We will demand that Beijing break down its trade barriers, fulfill its obligations, fully open its economy — just as we have opened ours.
We’ll continue to take action against Beijing until the theft of American intellectual property ends once and for all. And we will continue to stand strong until Beijing stops the predatory practice of forced technology transfer. We will protect the private property interests of American enterprise. (Applause.)
And to advance our vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific, we’re building new and stronger bonds with nations that share our values across the region, from India to Samoa. Our relationships will flow from a spirit of respect built on partnership, not domination.
We’re forging new trade deals on a bilateral basis, just as last week President Trump signed an improved trade deal with South Korea. And we will soon begin historic negotiations for a bilateral free-trade deal with Japan. (Applause.)
I’m also pleased to report that we’re streamlining international development and finance programs. We’ll be giving foreign nations a just and transparent alternative to China’s debt-trap diplomacy. In fact, this week, President Trump will sign the BUILD Act into law.
Next month, it will be my privilege to represent the United States in Singapore and Papua New Guinea, at ASEAN and APEC. There, we will unveil new measures and programs to support a free and open Indo-Pacific. And on behalf of the President, I will deliver the message that America’s commitment to the Indo-Pacific has never been stronger. (Applause.)
Closer to home, to protect our interests, we’ve recently strengthened CFIUS — the Committee on Foreign Investment — heightening our scrutiny of Chinese investment in America to protect our national security from Beijing’s predatory actions.
And when it comes to Beijing’s malign influence and interference in American politics and policy, we will continue to expose it, no matter the form it takes. We will work with leaders at every level of society to defend our national interests and most cherished ideals. The American people will play the decisive role — and, in fact, they already are.
As we gather here, a new consensus is rising across America. More business leaders are thinking beyond the next quarter, and thinking twice before diving into the Chinese market if it means turning over their intellectual property or abetting Beijing’s oppression. But more must follow suit. For example, Google should immediately end development of the “Dragonfly” app that will strengthen Communist Party censorship and compromise the privacy of Chinese customers. (Applause.)
It’s also great to see more journalists reporting the truth without fear or favor, digging deep to find where China is interfering in our society, and why. And we hope that American and global news organizations will continue to join this effort on an increasing basis.
More scholars are also speaking out forcefully and defending academic freedom, and more universities and think tanks are mustering the courage to turn away Beijing’s easy money, recognizing that every dollar comes with a corresponding demand. And we’re confident that their ranks will grow.
And across the nation, the American people are growing in vigilance, with a newfound appreciation for our administration’s actions and the President’s leadership to reset America’s economic and strategic relationship with China. Americans stand strong behind a President that’s putting America first.
And under President Trump’s leadership, I can assure you, America will stay the course. China should know that the American people and their elected officials in both parties are resolved.
As our National Security Strategy states: We should remember that “Competition does not always mean hostility,” nor does it have to. The President has made clear, we want a constructive relationship with Beijing where our prosperity and security grow together, not apart. While Beijing has been moving further away from this vision, China’s rulers can still change course and return to the spirit of reform and opening that characterize the beginning of this relationship decades ago. The American people want nothing more; and the Chinese people deserve nothing less.
The great Chinese storyteller Lu Xun often lamented that his country, and he wrote, “has either looked down at foreigners as brutes, or up to them as saints,” but never “as equals.” Today, America is reaching out our hand to China. And we hope that soon, Beijing will reach back with deeds, not words, and with renewed respect for America. But be assured: we will not relent until our relationship with China is grounded in fairness, reciprocity, and respect for our sovereignty. (Applause.)
There is an ancient Chinese proverb that reads, “Men see only the present, but heaven sees the future.” As we go forward, let us pursue a future of peace and prosperity with resolve and faith. Faith in President Trump’s leadership and vision, and the relationship that he has forged with China’s president. Faith in the enduring friendship between the American people and the Chinese people. And Faith that heaven sees the future — and by God’s grace, America and China will meet that future together.
Thank you. God bless you. And God bless the United States of America. (Applause.)
END
11:47 A.M. EDT

Sunday, October 7, 2018

紀錄一下: 恆指 26292 + 降準減稅降費



由年初至今的 HSI OCT8, 2018


個市由2月份高位33484, 拾級以下, 睇黎好快挑戰26000。

長年期 HSI

香港市場氣氛普遍還可以, 未聽到有輸到跳樓的消息。而且好多人上年炒大股, 隻隻都有肉食, 係咁易都 2X %, 如果出入得宜, 50% 不是夢, 有排都未入肉。睇長遠D, QE後頭果幾年個市都係22000~24000 左右浮浮沉沉, 今日個市去到26000, 氣氛仲係麻麻, 但會否已經見底, 定係 the worst is yet to come? who knows? 只好在有限能力內去控制風險。

中原城市指數 OCT 8, 2018


港樓還未有回調, 在資產價格升值下大家仲大把貨 (加按 轉按等套現), 講真, 就算跌5成, 都係叫做打回原型, 今日CCL 係185, 去到100都係係番去 2012 時期, 何況今時唔同往日, 港樓已經變左做國內有錢佬做資產配置既工具, 所謂既剛性需求就係靠父幹, 持貨實力大增。二手樓繼續冰封, 新盤繼續大賣, 如果有日新盤都無人買二當家至覺得係真轉勢, 因為最後既購買力都被用盡。另外, 二當家覺得DSD可能係樓價大跌既原兇, 宜家D人怕賣左買唔番, 但如果一轉勢, 就變左有盤放無人買(DSD限制了市場需家), 要班有能力既人肯花15% 入市, 個價一定要回番>2成。呢個只係我想幻想, 唔知會唔會實現。新聞開始吹奏樓價下調, 不過都係零星例子, 大勢仲係未變。 

USD<>CNY OCT 8, 2018


人仔因貿易戰回落了8%, 會否破7? 
貶得太快, 又被人話係貨幣操控國 (二當家註: 乜唔係公認架咩?), 唔貶, 又怕出口企業唔掂。尋日人行降準 1%, 二當家唔係經濟學家, 只知道係為左增加市場貨幣流通性, 怕企業借唔到錢挨唔到呢個寒冬。另外中國仲研究緊減稅降費, 中國政府又有咁多動作, 睇黎貿易戰非短期, 呢單野由上年年尾開始, 大家估下會唔會真打, 到美國真出手, 中國還拖, 美國加碼, 前幾日仲話有中國晶片, 乜野「藞苴(哪喳)」手段都出齊, 加上北韓同南韓做番朋友, 中國既盟友真係買少見少, 單靠內需, 可以嗎?




最後既問題係中國有幾缺水, 美國加息, 十年期債券 YTM  升到3.2%, 睇番中國企業, 以兩間內房黎睇, COUPON RATE 已經去到 9% ~ 10%, 我覺得成個世界玩緊既就係, 收水了, 究竟美國 既開支爆先 (e.g. 利息), 定係中國企業既資金鏈爆先, 潛台詞就係, 你信誰?  





//劉昆說,下一步,積極的財政政策將從四方面繼續「發力」:
一、加力減負。全面落實已推出的減稅降費政策,同時抓緊研究更大規模的減稅、更加明顯的降費措施,真正讓企業「輕裝上陣、放手發展」。
二、補齊短板。大力支持中共中央確定的重大項目建設,加強經濟社會發展的薄弱環節。
三、促進消費。推動完善有利於提高居民消費能力的收入分配制度,深入研究論證個人所得稅專項附加扣除方案等政策,增加居民收入,激發居民消費潛力。
四、節用裕民。政府要過「緊日子」,把省下的錢用於保障民生支出,用在老百姓身上,讓人民過上好日子。//


Friday, October 5, 2018

<我不是藥神> 與 高錕

<我不是藥神>是一套探討藥品價格, 法與情等問題的中國電影。





小心劇透

//簡單介紹一下, 主角原本是一夠走私印度神油的商人, 一次機會下, 開始從事翻版藥的生意, 從印度藥廠走私到中國, 把用低成本買回來的翻版藥以數倍價錢賣給病人。雖然售價比起成本高了幾倍, 但對比起正版藥還是平了一半有多, 最重要的是與正版藥的藥效一樣。

主角的生意越做越大, 正版藥廠當然不會坐視不管, 向政府及公安局施加壓力, 主角因為怕惹上麻煩, 最後把生意賣盤給一名騙子後便重新過活。


數年後, 主角以前的伙伴找回主角, 原來騙子被捉了, 市場上沒有翻版藥的供應, 而病人又負擔不起正版藥, 主角在良心責備下, 決定再次幫病人走私翻版藥...//



其實一開始睇這套電影, 沒想到中國電影會敢拍呢類型, 係對制度既批評, 比起香港經常用「探討」既手法, 帶出更加強烈既信息。電影以「民粹」的角度來拍攝, 充滿催淚與哭訴, 企業家當然是衰人, 賺取「不合理地高」的利潤, 加上擁有特權及影響力, 對病人的性命視若無睹。但現實又是否如此?

如果只單單以「製造成本」去衡量價錢的合理性, 這是不合理的。研發一隻新藥背後的成本是非常高, 加上要臨床測試, 對投資者來講絕對是非常高風險的投資項目, 假若該藥研究到一半至發覺無成效, 可以話係 TOTAL LOSS。所以高成本的投入帶來既就係高回報, 及對該藥物作出一個保護期(專利), 令到在一段時間內公司可以得到豐厚的利潤, 並鼓勵再次投資在藥物開發上。

當然, 每件事都有兩邊, 當中最多人討論的藥廠以回扣作手段去增加銷量, 但樹大總有枯枝, 我們知道資本主義這個制度既不完美, 但了解制度上的不完美, 總比打著「民粹」角度去把所有的責任推給企業家為好,


在這個不完美的制度下, 像高錕這樣的祟高學者應該更得到我們的尊重, 他把研究成果免費地公開, 讓全世界人受惠, 被起「發財才立品」的人更值得尊敬。Rest In Peace.





香港01: 【我不是藥神】高藥價背後的黑幕 令人遺憾的電影結局
光纖沒取得專利 高錕無怨無悔 反盼望全世界網民免費上網